Rookies to go head-to-head in Mets-Nationals clash

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the Washington Nationals already looking ahead to next year -- and maybe even 2012 given Stephen Strasburg's need for Tommy John surgery -- a couple of young players are looking to show the team they can contribute.

No one has been better at that than Danny Espinosa.

The former 2008 third-round pick will aim to show his stuff again tonight, when the Nationals shoot for a season-high fourth straight win in the middle contest of a three-game set with the New York Mets at Nationals Park.

Expected to be Washington's everyday second baseman as early as next season, the 23-year-old made the start at shortstop in Monday's opener and went 4- for-5 with a pair of homers, including a sixth-inning grand slam, and six RBI in a 13-3 rout of New York.

Through five games since his September call-up, Espinosa is 9-for-16 with three homers and 10 RBI.

"These are big weeks for me," Espinosa said. "I just want to play well, play hard and I feel if I stay within myself and play my game, things will go my way."

Ivan Rodriguez added three RBI and Roger Bernadina scored three times for the Nationals, who have won a season high-tying three straight for the second time in less than two weeks.

The Nationals, though, did lose outfielder Willie Harris in the third inning after he crashed hard into the wall trying to make a catch. He came out of the game due to dizziness and is day-to-day.

Josh Thole drove in two runs for the Mets, who have lost six of eight on a 10- game road trip. Mike Pelfrey was tagged for six runs on five hits with three walks over 3 2/3 innings to take the loss.

"We had a 3-0 lead and he was kind of cruising and then kind of lost it," Mets manager Jerry Manuel said of his starter. "Mike Pelfrey is still a young pitcher. He's going to be a tremendous pitcher at some point in his career. I think he'll soon be a guy that will be counted on as someone that you know what you're going to get from him every time out."

Given that both teams are out of the playoff race, it isn't surprising that a pair of starters will be making their major league debuts in this game.

For the Mets, Dillon Gee steps in for an injured Johan Santana, who left his last start on Thursday after five innings due to a pectoral muscle strain.

"It's recommended that he skip this start," Manuel said of Santana on New York's website. "He wants to pitch, he feels like he can pitch through it, but I don't feel it's worth it to push him at this particular time. It's not in the best interest of the organization to push him at this particular point."

Gee, a 24-year-old righty, was 13-8 with a 4.96 earned run average with Triple-A Buffalo and led the International League with 165 strikeouts.

His counterpart tonight is 29-year-old Cuban Yuneski Maya, who signed a four- year deal with the Nationals on July 31 and gave up two runs -- one earned -- over 10 1/3 innings and two starts with Triple-A Syracuse.

The right-hander pitched in the World Baseball Classic in both 2006 and '09 and won Cuba's version of the Cy Young Award during his final season with Pinar Del Rio Vegueros after going 13-4 with a 2.22 ERA and seven complete games.

"I felt good in the minors," Maya told Washington's website. "My arm is at 100 percent, and I feel really good. It's a hard league in Triple-A, with a lot of veteran hitters that are pretty selective. I faced pretty tough hitters, but I felt pretty good."

The Nationals have won eight of 13 versus the Mets this year, including four of seven in Washington.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.